Over the last few years, many new investors have entered financial markets lulled by the promises of making “easy money”, “quick returns” etc. Investing involves both luck and skill and when you are on a roll, unfortunately most believe success to be a function of your skill. Is there a way to gauge if investment returns are more luck or skill.
Introducing a fictional character – Random! The tweet bio of Random describes it as “Stock Market Enthusiast, Follower of Buffet, Charts, Bhav Bhagwan Che, Elliott Wave , Quant, FnO, CoffeeCan Crypto
Random has done the following every month since 2000. From a universe of stocks which are within 90% of the overall market cap of listed stocks (thus avoiding micro-caps and other illiquid securities), Random creates 1,000 random portfolios of equal-weighted 50 companies. Similarly, Random creates another 1,000 portfolios whose individual stock weights vary from 0.5% to 9.5%. Thus, running 1,000×1,000 simulations (million portfolios of random stocks and random weights) and holding these portfoli.